The Global Realm

Russia affirms support for Syria’s Assad

By M K Bhadrakumar
Indian Punchline
January 23, 2012

The report from Moscow that Russia and Syria have signed an arms deal for the supply of 36 Yakovlev Yak-130 Mitten combat aircraft to Damascus will raise eyebrows. Yak-130 can perform light-combat and reconnaissance duties and can replicate many characteristics of 4+generation fighters as well as the fifth generation Sukhoi T-50. But it is not a match in air battles in the event of a western or Turkey-led military intervention in Syria. Russian analysts acknowledge the limitations of Yak-130.

So, why is Russia doing this? Four good reasons can be found. One, it is a sizable arms deal (550 million dollars) and obviously Russia keeps the Syrian market in view. Second, Russia is asserting its rejection of the west’s unilateralist sanctions regime against Syria, which lacks a UN mandate. Third, it is certainly a reiteration of support for the embattled Syrian regime at this point.

And, to stretch the argument a bit, it also suggests that in Moscow’s estimation, Syrian regime is not going to be overthrown anytime soon. Now, that’s a geopolitical gamble but it is worth taking because retaining Syria as a strategic partner in the Middle East is a high necessity for Russia.

Finally, although Yak-130 is not F-16, it can make the foreign intervention, if it happens, a little more costly. Without doubt, Moscow is making a point to Washington and Beijing.

To the former, Moscow is underscoring its strong rejection of regime change in Syria and is flagging that any US-led intervention will have to be without a UN mandate. Again, Moscow is signalling its seriousness of purpose to Beijing with which it coordinates its diplomatic moves over the Syrian developments.

The timing of the disclosure in Moscow is interesting. The European Union foreign ministers agreed at a meeting today on a series of further “restrictive measures” against Syria. The EU already has in place an arms embargo on Syria. Again, on Monday, Damascus rejected an Arab League foreign ministers’ call for President Bashar al-Assad to step down.

http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2012/01/23/russia-affirms-support-for-syrias-assad/

World Peace Hanging by a Thread

By:  Fidel Castro Ruz
Reflections by Fidel
Cuba Debate
Jan 14th, 2012

Yesterday I had the satisfaction of having a pleasant conversation with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. I had not seen him since 2006, more than five years ago, when he visited our country to participate in the 14th Summit of the Non-Aligned Movement of Countries in Havana. During the summit, Cuba was elected for the second time as president of the organization for a three-year term.

I had become gravely ill on July 26, 2006, a month and a half prior to the summit, and could barely sit up in bed. Many of the most distinguished leaders who participated in the event were kind enough to visit me. Chavez and Evo visited me several times. One afternoon four visitors came by whom I will always remember: UN Secretary General Kofi Annan; an old friend, Abdelaziz Buteflika, the president of Algeria; Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the president of Iran; and the vice minister of Foreign Affairs and current Foreign Minister of China, Yang Jiechi, on behalf of the leader of the Communist Party and the president of China, Hu Jintao. It was really an important time for me; I was in the midst of intense physiotherapy on my right hand that I had seriously injured when I fell in Santa Clara.

With all four I spoke about some of the difficulties facing the world at the time; problems that have become progressively more complex.

During our meeting yesterday, I noted that the Iranian president was absolutely calm and tranquil, completely unconcerned about the Yankee threats and, fully confident in the capacity of his people to confront any aggression and in the effectiveness of their arms —which, in large part, they produce themselves— to inflict an unpayable price on its aggressors.

In reality, we hardly spoke about the topic of war. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was focused on the ideas he had presented at the Main Hall of the University of Havana during his conference on the struggle of humankind: “Moving towards reaching and achieving peace, security, respect and human dignity as a fundamental desire of all human beings throughout history.”

I am convinced that Iran will not commit any rash actions that might contribute to setting off a war. If a war were to be unleashed, it would inevitably be completely as a result of the recklessness and congenital irresponsibility of the Yankee Empire.

I believe that the political situation surrounding Iran and the associated risks of a nuclear war that involves us all —regardless of whether one possess nuclear weapons— are extremely delicate because they threaten the very existence of our species. The Middle East has become the most troubled region on the planet, the same region that produces the energy resources vital for the world’s economy.

The destructive power and the mass sufferings caused by some of the weapons used in World War Two led to a strong movement to ban weapons such as asphyxiating gas and others. Nevertheless, conflicting interests and the huge profits made by arms manufacturers led to the production of crueler and more destructive weapons; modern technology has now added the means and material to build weapons that if used in a world war would lead to extinction.

I support the opinion, undoubtedly shared by all those with a basic sense of responsibility, that no country big or small has the right to possess nuclear weapons.

They never should have been used to attack two defenseless cities such as Hiroshima and Nagasaki, killing and irradiating with horrible and long-lasting effects hundreds of thousands of men, women and children, in a country that had already been militarily defeated.

If fascism indeed forced the allied nations against Nazism to compete with this enemy of humanity in the production of such weapons, once the war ended and the United Nations was created, the first duty of this organization should have been to prohibit nuclear weapons without exception.

However, the United States, the strongest and richest power, forced the rest of the world to follow its lead. Today, they have hundreds of satellites that spy and monitor the entire world from outer space. Their naval, air and land forces are equipped with thousands of nuclear weapons; and they control the world’s finances and investments at their whim via the International Monetary Fund.

Analyzing the history of each Latin American nation, from Mexico to Patagonia, by way of Santo Domingo and Haiti, one can observe that each and every country, without exception, have suffered for 200 years, from the beginning of the 19th century up until today. And, in one way or another, they are increasingly suffering the worst crimes that power and force can commit against the rights of a people. Brilliant Latin American writers are emerging in an increasing number. One of them, Eduardo Galeano, author of the book Open Veins of Latin America: Five Centuries of the Pillage of a Continent that describes the aforementioned, has just been invited to open the prestigious Casa de Las Americas Awards as a recognition to his outstanding body of work.

Events happen incredibly fast; but technologies report them to the public even faster. On any given day, like today, important news comes out a dizzying pace. A cable report dated from January 11 states: “The Danish presidency of the European Union confirmed on Wednesday that a new series of more severe European sanctions against Iran, because of its nuclear program, will be discussed on January 23. The new sanctions will not only target the oil industry but also the Central Bank.”

During a meeting with international journalists, Danish Foreign Minister Villy Soevndal said that “We will increase sanctions against the oil industry in addition to sanctions against financial structures.” This clearly demonstrates that, in order to impede nuclear proliferation, Israel can go on accumulating hundreds of nuclear warheads while Iran is not allowed to produce 20% enriched uranium.

Another article, from a respected British news agency, states that “China gave no hint on Wednesday of giving ground to U.S. demands to curb Iran’s oil revenues, rejecting Washington’s sanctions on Tehran as overstepping …”

The sheer tranquility with which the United States and civilized Europe carry out this campaign with incredible and systematic acts of terrorism is enough to shock anybody. Just look at these lines reported by another important European news agency: “The murder on Wednesday of Iranian nuclear specialist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan [a scientist at the Natanz nuclear plant] was the fourth attack to kill a leading scientist in the country in almost exactly two years.”

On January 12, 2010: “Massoud Ali Mohammadi, a particle physics professor at Tehran University is killed when a booby-trapped motorcycle explodes outside his home in the capital. “

On November 29, 2010: “Two attacks target leading Iranian nuclear scientists on the same day. Majid Shahriari, a key member of Iran’s Atomic Energy Agency, is killed in Tehran by a limpet bomb attached to his car. His colleague Fereydoon Abbasi Davani is also targeted by a bomb attached to his car, but escapes.” The car was parked in front of the Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran where both men worked as professors.

On July 23, 2011: “Gunmen shoot dead Dariush Rezaei-Nejad, a senior scientist who is reportedly associated with the defense ministry, and wound his wife as they waited for their child outside a Tehran kindergarten.”

On January 11, 2012 —the same day that Ahmadinejad travelled from Nicaragua to Cuba to give a conference at the University of Havana—, scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, “a deputy director at the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility, is killed in a car bomb blast outside the [Allameh Tabatabai] University in east Tehran.” As in previous years “Iran once again accused the United States and Israel.”

The killings represent a systematic and selective slaughter of brilliant Iranian scientists. I have read articles by known Israeli sympathizers who write about crimes carried out by Israeli intelligence services in cooperation with the United States and NATO as if they were the most normal occurrence.

At the same time, Moscow news agencies report that “Russia warned that in Syria a similar scenario is developing as to that in Libya, and added that this time the attack will be launched from neighboring Turkey.

“The secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, said the West wants to ‘punish Damascus not as much for repressing the opposition, but because it is unwilling to sever ties with Tehran.’”

“…NATO members and some Persian Gulf states, operating according to the Libya scenario, intend to move from indirect intervention in Syrian affairs to direct military intervention…This time the main strikes forces will not be provided by France, the U.K. or Italy, but possibly by neighboring Turkey.”

“Washington and Ankara are now assumed to be negotiating a “no-fly” zone over Syria, where Syrian armed insurgents can be trained and concentrated, added Patrushev.”

News is not only coming out of Iran and the Middle East, but also from other parts of Central Asia near the Middle East. These reports show the great complexity of the problems that can arise from this dangerous region.

The United States has been led by its contradictory and absurd imperial policy to get involved in serious problems in countries such as Pakistan, whose borders with Afghanistan were drawn up by the colonialists without taking into account culture or ethnicities.

In Afghanistan, which defended its independence against English colonialism for centuries, drug production has multiplied in the wake of the Yankee invasion. Meanwhile, European soldiers, supported by drone airplanes and armed with sophisticated US weapons, carry out deplorable massacres that increase the people’s hatred and ward off any possibilities of peace. All this and other dirty actions are also reported by Western news agencies.

“WASHINGTON, January 12, 2012 – US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta called the actions of four U.S. marines who urinated on corpses in Afghanistan “utterly deplorable” The video of the act was circulated in the Internet.

“’I have seen the footage, and I find the behavior depicted in it utterly deplorable…’

“’This conduct is entirely inappropriate for members of the United States military and does not reflect the standards of values our armed forces are sworn to uphold…’”

In reality, Panetta neither confirms nor denies the action, and anyone, including the Secretary of Defense himself, may harbor doubt.

But it is also extremely inhumane that men, women and children, or an Afghani combatant fighting against the foreign occupation, be murdered by bombs dropped by drone planes. Another very serious incident: dozens of Pakistani soldiers and officials who safeguarded the country’s borders have been killed by these bombs.

Afghani President Karzai stated that the outrage committed against the bodies was “simply inhumane.” He asked for the US government “to urgently investigate the video and apply the most severe punishment to anyone found guilty in this crime.”

Meanwhile Taliban spokespersons declared that “over the last ten years, hundreds of similar acts have been carried out that were not reported…”

One even feels sorry for those soldiers, thousands of kilometers away from their family, friends and country, sent to fight in countries that they might not have even heard of during their school days, where they are assigned the task of killing or dying to enrich transnational companies, arms manufacturers and unscrupulous politicians who each year squander funds needed to feed and educate the uncountable millions of hungry and illiterate people around the world.

Many of these soldiers, victims of the trauma suffered, end up taking their own lives.

Is it an exaggeration to say that world peace is hanging by a thread?

http://en.cubadebate.cu/reflections-fidel/2012/01/14/world-peace-hanging-by-theread/

The Best President for the United States

By:  Fidel Castro Ruz
Reflections by Fidel
Cuba Debate
Jan 10th, 2012

A well-known European news agency yesterday published from Sydney, Australia that a group of Australian researchers at the University of New South Wales announced the creation of an electrical cable ten thousand times thinner than a strand of hair, capable of carrying as much electricity as a traditional copper cable.

…Bent Weber, lead author of a study published in Science magazine at the University of New South Wales, in Sydney, Australia explained that “Interconnecting wiring of this scale will be vital for the development of future atomic-scale electronic circuits”.

“The wires were made by precisely placing chains of phosphorus atoms within a silicon crystal, according to the study, which includes researchers from the University of Melbourne and Purdue University in the US.”

The discovery is essential in the international race to develop the first ‘quantum computer’, super-fast machines capable of processing enormous amounts of information in just a few seconds: a series of calculations that would take years, or even decades, for today’s computers.

“In a traditional copper cable, the electricity is generated when the copper electrons flow along a conductor: but as the cable or conductor becomes smaller, resistance to the electrical flow becomes greater.”

In order to solve this problem, Weber and his team used specially designed microscopes with atomic precision that allowed them to place the phosphorus atoms into the silicone crystals.

“This allowed the nanocable to act as the copper, with the electrons flowing easily and with no resistance problems. They are trying to prove that with this technique it is possible to minimize components down to the scale of a few atoms.

If we are going to use atoms as bits, we need cables on the same scale as the atoms ― observed the supervisor of the group physicist, Micelle Simmons.”

With these unstoppable technological advances that ought to be for the well-being of humankind, I was recalling that just four days ago I wrote about the warming of the Earth and the accelerated exploitation of shale gas in a world that in two hundred years is consuming the fossil energy accumulated for 4 billion years.

Imagine Obama, that wordsmith, for whom, in his desperate search for re-election, the dreams of Martin Luther King Jr. are light years further away than the Earth is from the nearest inhabitable planet.

Worse yet:  any of the Republican Congressmen who are presidential hopefuls, or any leader of the Tea Party carries more nuclear weapons on their backs than ideas of peace in their heads.

Let the readers imagine for one moment that a powerful quantum calculator capable of multiplying an infinite number of times the data that today is collected by modern computers.

Is it not perhaps obvious that the worst thing of all this is the absence in the White House of a robot capable of governing the United States and preventing a war that would put an end to the life of our species?

I am certain that 90 percent of registered Americans, especially Hispanics, Afro-Americans and the growing numbers of the impoverished middle class would vote for the robot.

Wires shrink to atomic scale

University of New South Wales Faculty of Science
January 6, 2012

The narrowest conducting wires in silicon ever made – just four atoms wide and one atom tall – have been shown to have the same electrical current carrying capability of copper, according to a new study published today in the journal Science.

Despite their astonishingly tiny diameter – 10,000 times thinner than a human hair – these wires have exceptionally good electrical properties, raising hopes they will serve to connect atomic-scale components in the quantum computers of tomorrow.

“Interconnecting wiring of this scale will be vital for the development of future atomic-scale electronic circuits,” says the lead author of the study, Bent Weber, a PhD student in the ARC Centre of Excellence for Quantum Computation and Communication Technology at the University of New South Wales, in Sydney, Australia.

Michelle Simmons and Bent Weber

The wires were made by precisely placing chains of phosphorus atoms within a silicon crystal, according to the study, which includes researchers from the University of Melbourne and Purdue University in the US.

The researchers discovered that the electrical resistivity of their wires – a measure of the ease with which electrical current can flow – does not depend on the wire width. Their behaviour is described by Ohm’s law, which is a fundamental law of physics taught to every high school student.

“It is extraordinary to show that such a basic law still holds even when constructing a wire from the fundamental building blocks of nature – atoms,” says Weber.

The discovery demonstrates that electrical interconnects in silicon can shrink to atomic dimensions without loss of functionality, says the Centre’s Director and leader of the research, Professor Michelle Simmons.

“Driven by the semiconductor industry, computer chip components continuously shrink in size allowing ever smaller and more powerful computers,” Simmons says.

“Over the past 50 years this paradigm has established the microelectronics industry as one of the key drivers for global economic growth. A major focus of the Centre of Excellence at UNSW is to push this technology to the next level to develop a silicon-based quantum computer, where single atoms serve as the individual units of computation,” she says.

“It will come down to the wire. We are on the threshold of making transistors out of individual atoms. But to build a practical quantum computer we have recognised that the interconnecting wiring and circuitry also needs to shrink to the atomic scale.”

Creating such tiny components has been made possible using a technique called scanning tunnelling microscopy. “This technique not only allows us to image individual atoms but also to manipulate them and place them in position,” says Weber.

Media contacts:

Professor Michelle Simmons – +61 (0) 425 336 756

UNSW Media Office: Mary O’Malley – +61 (0) 438 881 124

http://www.science.unsw.edu.au/news/

China in 2012:  Political Challenges in China’s Economic Governance

By:  Willy Lam
China Brief
The Jamestown Foundation
January 20, 2012

Just as in the political and social arenas, the economic focus of the Hu Jintao-Wen Jiabao administration in 2012 will be upholding stability. In view of factors including the Eurozone debt crisis—which will impact on China’s exports to Europe adversely—top priority is being put on preventing a hard landing of the economy. The big question for this year is, with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership preoccupied with holding the fort, will new initiatives still be introduced to attain the long-standing goal of rationalizing and reforming the economy?

The tension between preserving stability and furthering reforms has been highlighted by Beijing’s efforts to prevent a hard-landing of the economy. Recently announced figures by the State Statistical Bureau showed China’s GDP grew year on year by 8.9 percent in 2011, down from the comparable figure of 9.1 percent for 2010. In anticipation of a further economic downturn, a series of high-level financial meetings held by the party and state leadership in December recommended a significant loosening of the country’s tight monetary policy. For example, the “loan target” for 2012—the extent of credit that Chinese banks are allowed to extend to domestic enterprises—is fixed at 8 trillion yuan ($1.27 trillion), or 500 billion yuan ($79 billion) more than that of 2011. And the M2 money-supply growth rate is set at 14 percent compared to 13.5 percent the year before (Reuters, January 11; Ming Pao [Hong Kong], January 12).The newly available credit—which could be used to prop up the stagnant housing market as well as to finance more infrastructure-related ventures—represents a continuation of the much-criticized strategy of realizing GDP expansion through state investment.

Despite the obsession with stability and the penchant for sticking with time-tested means to re-inflate the economy, this year could be a watershed in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) administration’s long-standing effort to restructure the economy. Major targets for 2011 to 2015 have been laid down in the 12th Five-Year Plan (12FYP) released in late 2010. Traditionally, the second year of every five-year plan is deemed crucial for its satisfactory completion. While Executive Vice Premier Li Keqiang is not expected to become premier—and China’s economic czar—until March 2013, the key protégé of President Hu’s was already given more authority over economic planning and “macro-level adjustment and control” (hongguan tiaokong) early last year. To both consolidate power and boost his national stature in the run-up to the 18th Party Congress in late 2012, it is possible that Li will map out far-reaching economic strategies in the coming months. Similarly, other prospective Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) members with known ambitions to reform the economy, such as Vice-Premier Wang Qishan, also might want to turn the current crisis into an opportunity for showcasing their talent for ushering in new solutions.

The foremost indicator of China’s economic health— and the sustainability of the so-called Chinese economic miracle—will be the extent to which domestic consumption will play a bigger role in GDP expansion. For some 30 years, the CCP leadership has depended on government cash injections—mainly fixed-assets investments in infrastructure, housing and other areas—in addition to exports as engines of growth. In the past decade, government outlays have consistently taken up at least 50 percent of GDP. Indicative of the leadership’s determination to retool the economic is the frank admission by President Hu last month that “at this stage of China’s economic development, questions of imbalance, lack of coordination and unsustainability are still very pronounced” (Xinhua, January 13; China News Service, December 14, 2011).

In spite of the consensus within the leadership that the key to sustainable growth is boosting domestic spending, household consumption as a percentage of GDP has declined from 50-odd percent in the 1980s to just 34 percent (New York Times, December 18, 2011; Financial Times, March 14, 2011). To encourage Chinese – particularly workers and farmers – to spend more, the government has repeatedly raised the minimum wage as well as social-insurance payouts. For example, Beijing pledged at the outset of the 12th FYP that worker’s income will increase annually at least at the same rate as GDP. Medical insurance, once available only in the cities, has the past few years been extended to more than 90 percent of rural townships and villages (Global Times, November 16, 2011; Beijing Morning Post, December 13, 2011).

Yet the main reason behind Chinese consumers’ tepid spending is that the bulk of the wealth generated by the “world factory” in the past two decades has gone to state coffers as well as yangqi conglomerates, or state-owned enterprise (SOE) groups that are directly controlled by the party-state apparatus. Equally detrimental to consumers’ spending power is the deliberately low interest rates set for Chinese citizens’ 80-odd trillion yuan’s ($12.7 trillion) worth of bank deposits. This has resulted in the equivalent of up to 7 percent of GDP being siphoned off annually from households to benefit government banks and their SOE borrowers. Moreover, for the past decade or so, the salaries of workers as a proportion of GDP have fallen by an estimated 1 percent each year (China Youth Daily, January 5; Xinhua, September 27, 2011; Businessweek, August 6, 2010). Whether Premier Wen and Vice Premier Li will roll out policies to reverse the trend of “rich state; poor citizens” (guofu minqiong) is a good yardstick of Beijing’s commitment to rationalizing the economic structure and promoting more equitable income distribution.

Two related areas where seminal developments may take place this year with significant impact on economic reform merit scrutiny. One is the globalization of the renminbi, or yuan. The renminbi’s internationalization will mean not only that it will be freely convertible but also that its valuation will be less subject to state fiats. The yuan appreciated by 4.27 percent against the U.S. dollar in 2011. Full liberalization will make for a higher rate of appreciation. While this may hurt exports in the short run, it also will lessen Beijing’s dependence on trade surpluses as a locomotive of growth. Moreover, a freely convertible yuan will expedite the development of Shanghai and other mega-cities into international financial centers. Equally significantly, a stronger yuan will boost consumer spending in view of the fact that imports will become significantly cheaper (Reuters, December 26, 2011; The Economist, October 16, 2011).

Yet a tug-of–war has erupted within the central government over the pace of yuan globalization. The Ministry of Commerce and other departments close to China’s powerful export section do not favor a drastic reform of the yuan. It also is not surprising that many experts have spoken out against a faster pace of currency reform. For instance, Huang Yiping, Economics Professor at the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University, noted in New York last week that it would be hard to argue the yuan was undervalued when China’s trade surplus was only 2 percent of GDP. There are indications, however, that more forward-looking officials are toying with bolder visions. Several senior government officials and advisors have the past year leaked to the overseas media rough “deadlines” for the yuan’s internationalization. These have ranged from 2015 to the end of this decade (Bloomberg News, September 8, 2011; Businessweek, September 25, 2011). Premier-in-waiting Li will have no better platform for demonstrating his reformist credentials than a resolute and speedy resolution to the long-standing question of the internationalization of the Chinese currency.

The other touchstone of Beijing’s commitment to economic liberalization is whether a brake will be put on the disturbing trend of guojin mintui, or the state sector making advancements at the expense of privately owned enterprises (POEs). “In recent years, China seems to be embracing state capitalism more strongly, rather than continuing to move toward the economic reform goals that originally drove its pursuit of WTO membership,” said the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office in its annual report on the Chinese economy. The enhanced status of the state sector is a major reason why China was ranked a lowly 138th in the Heritage Foundation’s annual world index of economic freedom (Associated Press, December 13, 2011; Globalpost.com, December 1, 2011; Heritage Foundation, January 12).

While the number of government enterprises has decreased significantly from the early 1990s, the remaining state-held firms—about 130 yangqi and several thousand regional SOEs—have been given much more monopolisitc powers. Particularly since the onset of the global financial crisis, SOEs have gone on a spree of nationalization during which they have snapped up thousands of relatively well-run and lucrative POEs. The bulk of the government’s investments as well as bank loans is still going into the state sector. For example, close to 90 percent of the 4 trillion yuan ($633 billion) that the State Council pumped into the economy in late 2008 has benefited SOEs rather than non-state-sector firms (Sina.com, October 9, 2011; Southern Metropolitan News, September 23, 2011). By contrast, some of the most active and efficient POEs in quasi-capitalist havens in the coastal provinces of Zhejiang and Guangdong have gone bankrupt due to factors including failure to secure financing from state banks (See “Beijing Battles Brewing Crisis in Financial Sector,” China Brief, October 14, 2011).

In the past few years, the guojin mintui trend has been supported by the 130 or so yangqi, many of whose chairmen and CEOs are either princelings or ministerial-level cadres who have already been inducted into the CCP Central Committee. Highly respected economists, who have the ears of reformist leaders such as Wu Jinglian and Li Yining, however have upped the ante in their critique of the nationalization trend (Yangcheng Evening Post [Guangzhou], September 29, 2011; China Daily, September 2, 2011; Xinmin Evening Post [Shanghai], March 4, 2010). A reversal of the guojin mintui policy could help realize pledges by both Hu and Wen to spread the wealth more evenly. Given that the great majority of Chinese workers are hired by POEs, a bigger role for the private sector will not only advance the goal of social justice but also enable ordinary citizens to have more money to spend. Equally significant is that a healthy and vibrant private sector is essential to boosting indigenous innovation, which is another major goal of the 12FYP. It is true that in tandem with the leaps-and-bounds expansion of the economy, Chinese technology has scored some impressive triumphs. Spectacular high-tech breakthroughs since the late 2000s have ranged from the world’s fastest computer and speediest train service to the installation of a semi-permanent scientific station in outer space (The Guardian [London], November 3, 2011; New York Times, October 28, 2011).

The Chinese approach to innovation however is still reminiscent of that of the former Soviet Union. Within the 12FYP period, Beijing is spending $1.5 trillion to boost research and development (R&D) funding for seven key sectors that range from green energy to IT-related technologies. This dovetails with the long-held tradition that the bulk of China’s technological innovation emanates from laboratories and R&D facilities in SOEs as well as military units. Yet state-dominated innovation may not be working that well. For instance, while China boasts the world’s largest number of scientists and engineers—more than 53 million—most of the core technologies used in China still have to be imported from the United States, Europe, Japan and South Korea (Reuters, July 7, 2011; Qdcaijing.com [Qingdao], February 19, 2011; Forbes, January 20, 2011). Not a single Chinese firm was featured in the “Top 100 Global Innovators” list of the world’s innovation-driven companies compiled by the Thomson Reuters agency late last year. As is well-illustrated by the Silicon Valley model, the great majority of of innovative and technologically advanced products and services in Western countries hails from private firms (New York Times, January 1; Reuters, November 15, 2011).

Apart from formulating more market-oriented policies, the CCP administration needs to reform China’s tradition-bound and unwieldy government structure. The conventional wisdom that one-party authoritarian rule makes for efficient policymaking does not seem to apply to China—or at least not oversight of policy implementation. Take monetary and fiscal policy. Decision-making powers in this crucial area are split among at least the following departments: the CCP’s Leading Group on Finance and Economics, the premier’s office, the National Development and Reform Commission, the People’s Bank of China, the Finance Ministry, and the China Banking Regulatory Commission. Moreover, despite well-established top-down command-and-control mechanisms, central authorities often have a hard time monitoring the finances of sub-national administrations. This accounts for the fact that theoretically illegal underground banking institutions have cobbled together a credit market worth 10 trillion yuan ($1.6 trillion). Additionally, local governments along with 6,587 government-related investment and financial companies have run up debts totaling an estimated 14 trillion yuan ($2.2 trillion) (Bloomberg News, December 19 2011; Wall Street Journal, December 10, 2011).

It is significant that, immediately upon being promoted to Executive Vice Premier in March 2008, Li helped Wen formulate a master plan to restructure government departments with a view to centralizing authorities in a number of “super-ministries” (See “Beijing Unveils Plans for Super Ministries,” China Brief, February 4, 2008). One proposal entertained at the time was the establishment of a Super-Ministry of Finance to take charge of monetary and fiscal policies. The creation of a Super-Ministry of Transport also was proposed to unify and coordinate policymaking affecting railways, highways, aviation and marine transport. Owing to opposition from vested interests, however, most of Wen and Li’s plans failed to materialize (China Daily, March 11. 2008; China.org.cn, March 5, 2008). Nonetheless, the National Energy Commission, which was set up in 2010, was an effort to unify decision-making on energy-related matters under one roof. Whether premier-in-waiting Li would soon give another big push to restructuring the central-government bureaucracy merits careful attention.

The near-universal condemnation of the Ministry of Railways in the wake of the July 23, 2011 high-speed train disaster in Wenzhou has given institutional reformers within the State Council a God-sent pretext to revive the old agenda of setting up a Super-Ministry of Transport. Vice Premier Wang Qishan, who is in line to become Executive Vice Premier after his expected induction into the PBSC at the 18th Party Congress, is known to favor the creation of a Super-Ministry to handle monetary policy. It is thus possible that Li and Wang soon join forces to lay the groundwork for a thorough restructuring of central government units in the near to medium term.

As Premier Wen has reiterated, “without reform of the political structure, achievements attained in economic reform could suffer a serious setback” (Chinanews.com.cn, September 14, 2011; China.com.cn, August 23, 2010). Factors key to the rationalization and reform of the Chinese economy, such as boosting the private sector and allowing ordinary citizens to enjoy a bigger share of the economic pie, hinge upon whether the CCP leadership is willing and able to resuscitate political and structural reform. However, given the apparent consensus among disparate factions that political liberalization would jeopardize the CCP’s “perennial ruling party status,” the possibilities for resolute steps in this direction may not be high this year.

http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=38911&cHash=9d109d12e85a44a467de782a3b83e83f

Europe at war with Iran

By Pepe Escobar
THE ROVING EYE
Asia Times
Jan 25, 2012

No one ever lost money betting on the foolishness of European Union (EU) politicos. And if you are an oil trader, rejoice – all the way to the bank; as expected, EU foreign ministers – meekly following the Barack Obama administration – have given a green light for a full Iranian oil embargo.

The embargo applies not only to new contracts but also existing contracts – to be voided by July 1, and includes extra sanctions targeting Iran’s central bank and petrochemical exports to the EU.

It’s always crucial to remember the embargo – a de facto European declaration of economic war – was forcefully proposed in the first place by the neo-Napoleonic “liberator” of Libya, France’s President Nicolas Sarkozy. The official EU excuse for the economic war is “serious and deepening concerns over the Iranian nuclear program”.

It didn’t help that Moscow had already warned the EU to stop acting as mere pawns of Washington – once again shooting themselves in their Ferragamo-clad feet. The Russians know all there is to know about how this embargo may horribly backfire.

The EU defends its strategy – or economic war – as the only way to avert “chaos in the Middle East”. Yet the economic war may end up sparking the full-blown war it is theoretically trying to avert; talk about an array of unintended consequences waiting in the wings.

And that leads us straight to the Strait of Hormuz drama. Tehran has repeatedly said that it would close Hormuz only if – and we should repeat – only if Iran is blocked from exporting its oil. This would represent a deathblow to the Iranian economy – totally dependent on oil exports – not to mention the regime controlled by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Regime change is the real agenda of Washington and its European poodles (see The myth of ‘isolated Iran’ Asia Times Online, January 19) – but that cannot be spelled out to global public opinion.

The tracks of my tears

Of the top five Iranian oil importers, four are in Asia; two BRICS members (China and India), plus US allies Japan and South Korea. It’s fair to argue that all these importers would severely blame the Americans/Europeans for their provocations (in fact some are already doing that) should Iran consider blocking – or activating a series of mines – in the Strait of Hormuz.

The EU for its part imports around 600,000 barrels of oil a day from Iran; that’s about 25% of Iran’s daily exports of 2.6 million barrels. The top EU importer is Italy. Other key importers are Spain and Greece. All these Club Med countries, to put it mildly, are currently mired in deep economic mess.

The EU insists on spinning its so-called “dual track” approach towards Iran. Stripped of spin, dual track essentially translates in practice as “shut up, bow to our sanctions, stop enriching uranium and sit on the table to negotiate on our terms”.

So when the EU’s foreign policy head – the stupendously innocuous Catherine Ashton – spins about the “validity of the dual track approach”, serious diplomats across the developing world can only interpret it for what it is; a joke. That’s not exactly an incentive for Iran to renew nuclear negotiations with the “Iran Six” group (permanent United Nations Security Council members the US, Britain, France, Russia, China, plus Germany).

Meanwhile, the Lord of the European poodles – the Obama administration – is applying all sorts of pressure over Asian powers to stop buying Iranian oil. Fat chance. For all of them – including Japan and South Korea – it will remain business as usual; they need Iran’s oil even more than the West.

Even BP – the sterling polluter of the Gulf of Mexico – has asked the Obama administration for an exemption from sanctions. It all has to do with a key Pipelineistan chapter – the development of the immense Shah Deniz II gas field in Azerbaijan.

There’s no way Europe can benefit from Caspian Sea gas without a massive $22 billion investment to develop Shah Deniz II – of which Iran holds a 10% participation. Shah Deniz II would be essential to supply the Nabucco pipeline – if it ever gets built. Nabucco bypasses Iran’s strategic ally Russia – which happens to maintain a stranglehold over Europe’s gas supply, as Europeans themselves never cease to complain in Brussels.

If Iran blocks it, the deal dies. So we have a post-surrealist situation of Britain’s Big Oil – via BP – imploring for the US to exempt it from sanctions, otherwise European energy security will be at risk. Britain also happens to be an implacable foe of Tehran’s regime, but still relies on Iran to “save” Europe from the claws of Gazprom. You can’t make this stuff up.

The City never sleeps

The name of the game in Iran will always be regime change because the perennial wet dream of Washington and the European poodles is to grab Iran’s fabulous oil (12.7% of global reserves) and gas wealth. And the fact is that wealth is increasingly profiting the Asian Energy Security Grid – and not the West.

The huge North and South Azadegan fields – 26 billion barrels – are being exploited by – who else – China; China National Petroleum Corporation is developing both, investing $8.4 billion over the next 10 years. As for the Yadavaran field, it is being developed by the China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation; in four years, it will be producing almost 200,000 barrels a day. And all this without even mentioning the largest gas field in the world – South Pars, of which Iran holds a great portion, alongside Qatar.

And then there’s the crucial petrodollar front. Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK), slightly before he was forced to resign as the International Monetary Fund’s director general over a sex scandal, was insisting on the end of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, proposing instead the IMF’s special drawing rights – the IMF’s virtual currency including the US dollar, euro, pound, yen and yuan.

Well, it’s already happening, via other means. Memo to an asleep at the wheel Washington/Brussels axis; China and India are already bypassing US/EU sanctions on Iran.

Three BRICS members (Russia, India and China), plus Japan and Iran – a mighty mix of the world’s largest producers and consumers of energy – are already trading, or about to trade, in their own currencies. Russia and Iran have just started trading in rials and roubles. All of these powers have bilateral agreements – inexorably surging to multilateral; and that translates as the US dollar slowly fading as the global reserve currency, with all the seismic consequences this implies.

It’s as if a stunned world was watching a ritual seppuku in slow motion committed by the Washington-dominated West.

There is also the auspicious orange in this Year of the Dragon pie – the upcoming foreign exchange bourse trading in yuan in the City of London. Beijing wants it – and the City badly wants it. Tehran already sells oil to Beijing in yuan. Think of Iran using the City foreign exchange to use their yuan and thus keep access to all global markets – no matter the US/EU sanctions/embargo avalanche.

Obviously, City players are aware that a “free trade” yuan bourse in London may play to Iran’s advantage; but unlike those morons in Brussels, at least City slickers are aware that business is business.

Pepe Escobar is the author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War (Nimble Books, 2007) and Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge. His new book, just out, is Obama does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009).

He may be reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NA25Ak02.html

Europe passes the oil buck to China

By Phil Radford
Asia Times
Jan 25, 2012

Monday’s decision by European Union foreign ministers to quickly turn the taps off crude oil imports from Iran will dramatically add to the pressure on Tehran to negotiate over its nuclear program.

The EU agreement will close off Iran’s second-biggest market for crude oil, responsible for a fifth of oil exports. Without concessions for cash-strapped Greece or Italy, the decision forces the pace of decision-making in Tehran. Crude oil exports generate 80% of Iran’s foreign earnings, without which Iran cannot pay for imports.

The US-sponsored sanctions movement means Tehran’s options are constrained. Iran’s next biggest oil customer is Japan, which buys 14% of exports, but the country’s finance minister has already signaled that Japan wants to take steps to reduce that share. South Korea’s deputy foreign minister has also indicated support for the international embargo policy, which puts another 10% of Tehran’s crude exports on a declining trajectory.

India, which buys 11% of Iranian exports, might provide relief, but banking sanctions and a semi-convertible rupee mean the country’s refineries already struggle to pay for the oil they do import.

That leaves China, Iran’s biggest oil customer, in an exceptionally powerful position. With EU markets out of play, and no likely respite from other Asian countries, what China decides to do with its 22% share of crude oil exports will likely make or break Tehran’s hopes for economic survival. But following the EU decision, Chinese leaders find themselves in an acutely uncomfortable position: they are now the arbiters of a sanctions policy they have publicly denounced.

China’s choice

Although they don’t welcome the situation, Chinese leaders have a genuine choice about how to act, and there are upsides to both courses. If they decide to play ball with the West’s sanctions, then Iran’s fate looks sealed, and Tehran will either have to negotiate or pursue diplomacy by other means – presumably in the Strait of Hormuz.

Either way, China will get the credit for forcing change, and its ships won’t have to do the fighting.

Alternatively, China could decide to not play ball, and help their refineries cash in on the situation. According to Bloomberg and other news agencies, Chinese executives at China International United Petroleum & Chemicals (Unipec), the trading arm of refining giant China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), are already negotiating heavy discounts from the Iranian National Oil Company (INOC), which now has more oil than it can sell.

And if Western governments don’t like China buying cheap crude at their expense, China can point at the already high spot price for crude, and ask them to speculate on what would happen if they didn’t.

Deftly managed, China could even have it both ways. By negotiating a discounted price but maintaining last year’s volumes of approximately 550,000 barrels per day (bpd), Chinese executives and officials can achieve the desired effect of oil sanctions by forcibly lower Iranian foreign earnings, but without disturbing Chinese import volumes.

China could also seize this once-in-a-generation opportunity to cheaply augment its strategic oil reserves, which might be easier to hide from Western governments since increased import volumes would not show up on companies’ monthly refining statistics.

Rule number one: Don’t take sides

For the moment, Chinese leaders are inviting the plague on both houses. Last Friday, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao bluntly warned Iran that China “… adamantly opposes Iran developing and possessing nuclear weapons”, while also vigorously defending his country’s right to “legitimate trade with Iran”.

But it does appear that Chinese oil companies are playing hardball with Tehran. Bloomberg has reported that Unipec executives in Tehran have, unusually, still not finalized 2012 import contracts with INOC. And last week, the Washington Post reported that daily January exports to China had so far dropped by almost a half to 285,000 barrels per day (bpd), although an Iranian-filled 2 million-barrel capacity tanker was due in at Caofeidian, Hebei province on January 23.

Awkward straits

Opportunities aside, Beijing has difficult waters to navigate, and three particularly dangerous cross-currents.

The first is commercial, in the form of America’s Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act 2010, which gives the US executive the power to prevent any company active in Iran’s petroleum sector from receiving US export licenses or borrowing more than US$10 million from a US bank.

On January 12, the Barack Obama administration decided to enforce these provisions against a Chinese company, Zuhai Zhenrong, which the US State Department says brokered the sale of 500,000 tons of petroleum in 2010.

Although the action won’t affect Zuhai’s business, bigger companies will take notice. Chinese companies have invested heavily in Iran, helping the country revitalize its sanctions-worn industries. In particular, Sinopec and China National Petroleum Company have signed huge exploration deals, for the Yadavaran and South Pars fields. These companies do not want to block themselves out from the US market.

Erica Downs, a China energy specialist at the Brookings Institution, says US officials are privately pressuring Chinese companies and that a tacit agreement has evolved – don’t make new investments, or “back-fill” Iranian contracts vacated by other foreign companies, and we will leave your current businesses alone.

Scaring the bankers

The second difficulty is financial sanctions, in the form of the US National Defense Authorization Act 2012, which Obama signed on December 31. The act prescribes sanctions against any company that deals with the Iranian central bank, through which all international oil payments are now settled.

Although it comes with discretionary presidential waivers to ensure the oil spot price isn’t sent rocketing out of control, the act’s deterrent effect was immediate and global. As Akihiko Tembo, chairman of Petroleum Association of Japan commented, “No matter what the Japanese government says, we can’t keep doing business with Iran, once the banks pull back from transactions.”

And since processing oil payments is low-value business for banks, the likelihood is that most will quickly withdraw from dealing with Iran. Chinese banks don’t want to be locked out of US markets either.

Unwarranted responsibility

The third, and potentially biggest, problem for China is that the country may become accountable for the spot price of oil.

According to an analysis by New York analysts Rhodium Group using November International Energy Agency data, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has unused production capacity of approximately 3.9 bpd, but any sudden shortfall would have to be met by members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – which have spare capacity of about 2.5 million bpd. This is almost exactly equal to Iran’s current average daily exports, estimated at 2.2-2.5 million bpd.

However, if all the 1.2 million bpd of Iranian crude currently shipped to Europe, Japan and Korea is replaced by increased GCC production, spare capacity would drop to 1.0 to 1.5 million bpd, historically very low levels, and well within the range where shocks or increased demand would dramatically increase the spot price.

This puts China in the position of a swing consumer: the only country able to quickly divert large purchases between the GCC and Iran’s discounted surplus to even out the spot price. If the spot price does become volatile, China will have to play its hand with considerable finesse.

Chinese purchasers would have to finely judge market supply and demand, as GCC countries ramp up production, and calculate the impact of any release of strategic reserves. Meanwhile, Chinese leaders would be anxious to avoid accusations of profiteering.

Best guide: Best interest

Ultimately, the best guide to China’s likely course is a correct appreciation of the country’s own best interests. As a massive crude importer, China wants a cheap and reliable supply of oil. By threatening the Gulf of Hormuz, the Iranian regime has clearly shown it is a long-term threat to that interest.

So in the long term, Beijing would be sympathetic to Western sanctions, and try to ensure they inflict sufficiently agonizing pain in Tehran to achieve their objective.

At the same time, China would want to protect its companies’ existing investments in Iran, so they retain pole position for the day Iran becomes “normal” again, and its oil industry cranks back into first-world gear. That means acting sympathetically towards Tehran, at least to the extent of not demonstrably knifing its government in the back.

As China steers this fine course, both Iran and the West can expect lots of pretexts for acts, or omissions, they find objectionable. But China’s long-term interest is clear. Sorry, Tehran.

Phil Radford is a freelance writer and international security analyst, based in Sydney.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/NA25Ad02.html

Iranian oil poses Asian dilemma

By Sreeram Chaulia
Asia Times
Jan 25, 2012

The European Union’s announcement of a ban on importing Iranian oil has unleashed an economic war that is bound to draw in Asia’s booming economies in spite of their reluctance to take sides and enter into the muddle.

The six-day sojourn through oil and gas-rich Arab countries in the past week by China’s Prime Minister Wen Jiabao was clearly organized in this context of rising tensions over fresh Western sanctions against Iran and its consequences for energy security in Asia.

On Monday, EU foreign ministers decided to close off Iran’s second-biggest market for crude oil, responsible for a fifth of oil exports over Iran’s nuclear program, suspected in some quarters – and denied by Iran – of being designed to create nuclear weapons.

The EU and the United States are pushing major importers of Iranian oil such as China, Japan, South Korea, India and Turkey to join the economic embargo. Although China has rebuffed Western entreaties to reduce oil imports from Iran, the choice of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar as the only destinations in Wen’s Middle East itinerary told a tale of precautionary diplomacy.

These three Arab states are pro-Western, Sunni Arab suppliers of oil and gas to Asia’s growth engines, and they are assaying the roles of Western accomplices in the economic war by presenting themselves as substitutes to energy products that Iran has been providing.

While China publicly plays down talk of forsaking Iranian oil and replacing it with Arab alternatives, Wen repeatedly raised the prospect of drastically increasing energy imports from the anti-Iranian Arab regimes he just visited.

Chinese communiques during Wen’s Middle East tour cited “complicated regional trends” and shaky energy horizons due to “geopolitical factors”, codes for the growing chorus in the West to compel Iran on its suspected nuclear weapons development.

Counter-threats from Tehran to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which much of Asia’s oil imports flow, and the ever-present danger that Israel might unilaterally attack Iran, have creased brows in Beijing as they coincide with China’s slowing economic growth.

Yet, China is confident that its size and economic leverage over the US are such that ignoring Washington on embargoing Iranian oil would not incur real damage.

When one Chinese oil firm, Zuhai Zhenrong, was recently placed on the financial sanctions list for trading with Iran, Beijing reacted furiously and conveyed “strong dissatisfaction and adamant opposition”. There is no automatic trigger for closing American financial markets to all foreign companies that trade in Iranian oil, and this discretionary element in the sanctions architecture gives China and other Asian powers scope to wiggle out of the proposed embargo.

Moreover, none of the Asian states are certain that the embargo on Iran will be long-lasting, given that anti-Iranian Arab petro-kingdoms cannot fill in the supply gap beyond more than one month. Barring a sudden fall of the Iranian regime, the embargo’s success through universal participation would only mean a huge spike in the price of crude oil and a big setback to the industrial machines of Asia.

Economic recessions have frequently followed “oil shocks” and the embargo on Iran could usher one more cycle of downturns.

Despite their strategic closeness to the US, countries like India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey are equally wary of costly economic fallout from sanctions and war in the Persian Gulf. New Delhi has decided not to heed the West on abandoning Iranian oil imports, and it is proceeding to negotiate alternative payment processing mechanisms to continue trading with Tehran.

But since India is not in a position to prevent a violent conflagration involving Israel and Iran, it is being reported that India’s Petroleum Ministry has instructed its public sector oil refining companies to “reduce their dependence on crude imports from that country [Iran]“.

As with other Asian importers of Iranian oil who are on tenterhooks because of the cold war between Iran and the West, India will eventually have to diversify away from (though not totally renounce) a politically unstable oil exporter like Iran and the supply chain originating from the Middle East as a whole.

With international sea freight rates declining steadily, India can think of entering into long-term contracts to raise oil imports from geographically more distant but predictable countries such as Venezuela, Brazil and Angola. Currently, India depends on the volatile Middle East for 70% of its oil and gas imports, an unhealthy addiction laden with grave international political risks.

While seeking to gradually free itself from Iranian and other Arab energy producers, India and other Asian powers must also factor in the larger structural implications – for the Middle East as a region – of deserting Iran at a time when the US and the EU are aiming at Tehran’s jugular.

If the Iranian regime falls to a mix of economic woes and US-Israeli sanctions or war, it could leave the Middle East bereft of any counterbalancing force to the West. Democracy in Iran through popular internal mass mobilization is more preferable as the new regime that emerges is unlikely to be a stooge of the West.

It is in the interests of Asian powers to avert a Middle East entirely under the Western thumb simply because India and its continental peers profess a desire for a multipolar world where there is no single global hegemon. It makes tactical sense to slowly retrench from Iranian oil, but it would be a strategic disaster for Asian powers to become reliant on Western approval to access Middle Eastern energy, which will remain important in Asia’s energy mix for at least some more years.

This geopolitical balance-of-power imperative is often lost in Indian strategic thought, which is prone to calculating more narrowly about the benefits and losses from a supply disruption in oil or inflation of barrel rates for crude.

China and Russia have the grand strategy of resisting Western hegemony in the Middle East, and they try through various developments, such as the imbroglio over democracy in Syria, to deny the onset of West-friendly regimes in that region.

Indian lenses are less global and New Delhi does not see itself as a counter-balancer to maintain multi-polarity on a global scale. There is also an implicit consensus in India that its only balance-of-power concern lies vis-a-vis China and that being seen openly as entering into a troika with Russia and China on issues in the Middle East would hurt India’s chances to assert its claim to be even-steven with China.

But the current standoff over embargoing Iran, which supplies 11% of India’s oil needs, is so vital to New Delhi’s national interests that it begs for more proactive diplomacy on the question of hegemony in the Middle East.

Unlike China, which has a first-mover advantage, India is also realizing the value of Africa and Latin America as stable sources of energy and trade rather late.

The economic war via Iran’s oil embargo should be a wakeup call to redouble Indian diplomacy and foreign investment in these two hitherto neglected continents, while not passively turning one’s back on the still pivotal Middle East.

Playing it safe and seeking more assured oil supplies is an evolutionary process for Asian powers. The interregnum period, until they tether their economies firmly to Africa and Latin America, will require joint positioning for maintaining a power balance in the Middle East.

Sreeram Chaulia is Professor and Vice Dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs in Sonipat, India, and the first B Raman Fellow for Geopolitical Analysis at the strategic affairs think-tank, The Takshashila Institution. He is author of the recently released International Organizations and Civilian Protection: Power, Ideas and Humanitarian Aid in Conflict Zones.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NA25Ak01.html

Andaman ‘human safaris’ shame Delhi

By Sudha Ramachandran
Asia Times
Jan 25, 2012

BANGALORE – Video footage of semi-naked Jarawa women being made to dance before tourists in return for food and money has evoked global outrage, forcing the Indian government to crack down on tour operators conducting “human safaris” in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

The footage, which was made public by British journalist Gethin Chamberlain of The Observer, has revived an old debate over whether tribal communities, especially those like the Jarawa that have for long resisted contact with the outside world, should be brought into the mainstream and exposed to so-called “development”.

The forests of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are home to six tribal communities; four of these – the Great Andamanese, the Onge, the Jarawas and the Sentinelese – are of Negrito origin and live in the Andaman Islands, while the other two – the Nicobarese and the Shompens – are of Mongoloid origin and live in the Nicobar Islands.

The Jarawa are believed to have lived in the Andamans for around 50,000 years. Just around 300-400 of them remain today; their extinction is around the corner. They are now confined to a “Jarawa reserve” in the Andamans

A hunter-gatherer community, the Jarawa have been hostile to outsiders for centuries, fiercely resisting settlers encroaching on their land. But British colonial settlement followed by immigration of mainland Indians and others, as well as a tidal wave of tourist inflow to this picturesque island chain have forced them to interact with outsiders.

This interaction has been a bane to the Jarawa. It has made them vulnerable to diseases like measles for which they have no immunity and to exploitation by wily traders. The video footage lays bare some of that abuse.

For several years now, activists have been drawing attention to how tour operators take busloads of tourists on human safaris to see the Jarawa, although government rules explicitly forbid any interaction with the Jarawa, including feeding or photographing them.

Police who are posted in these areas to protect the Jarawa supply the tour operators with women to dance for the tourists. Sexual exploitation by local police and officials as well as the settler population has been documented.

Experts are blaming the Andaman Trunk Road (ATR), a 330-kilometer road that links the capital Port Blair with Diglipur and cuts through thick forests that have traditionally been home to the Jarawa, for the exploitation.

The ATR’s construction was aimed at facilitating timber extraction from the forests where the Jarawa live. Over time, the road brought in hordes of tourists to “see” the Jarawa, even leer at their naked bodies.

If the ATR was not constructed, access to the Jarawa would have been limited. They could have lived their lives without outside interference and preserved their identity.

“If the road was not there, there would be no traffic and tourists and no opportunity for Jarawa tourism or the making of these videos,” Pankaj Sekhsaria, who is associated with Kalpvriksh, a non-governmental organization working to prevent intervention in Jarawa community life, told Asia Times Online.

Recognizing the negative impact of the ATR on the Jarawa, India’s Supreme Court in 2002 ordered the closing down of the ATR in precisely those parts where the video was made, in the interests of protecting the Jarawa.

However, the court order was not implemented. Andaman administration did nothing to shut down the road. “Ten years of contempt of court has followed and traffic continues on this road – that is at the root of the present controversy as well,” Sekhsaria pointed out.

A Jarawa policy formulated in 2004 sought to protect them from “harmful effects of exposure and contact with the outside world” and preserve their “social organization, mode of subsistence and cultural identity”. It was a “progressive” policy, observes Sekhsaria. But this too was not implemented.

The priority assigned to relief and reconstruction following the 2004 tsunami was blamed for the government’s failure to implement the policy, an environment activist based in Port Blair recalled. However, it was powerful vested interests that require the ATR for their operations – the sand mining lobby, the timber merchants and the tour operators – that have pressured the local administration to keep the road open to date, he said. Their plunder depends on the road.

Those who want the ATR open insist that the Jarawa are not adversely affected by the road. They point out that the Jarawa have been reaching out to outsiders since the late 1990s, providing them with deer meat, honey etc in exchange for liquor, cigarettes and even junk food. They have also been seen accessing government health care facilities.

Indeed, in 1998 a group of Jarawa were seen outside their forests without their bows and arrows for the first time ever. They have been less hostile to outsiders in recent years.

However, not everyone is convinced that this should be interpreted as a Jarawa nod for interaction with outsiders. “We know little about how they live and what their world view is,” points out Sekhsaria. The question is what do the Jarawa want?

Some have argued in favor of bringing the Jarawa into the mainstream, ensuring them access to modern ways of living. Why should they be denied the fruits of modernity, they ask. In the words of Tribal Affairs Minister Kishore Chandra Deo, “it would be totally unfair to leave them [Jarawas] in a beastly condition forever”.

The experiences of the islands’ tribal communities provide useful pointers to what is good for them. The Great Andamanese, who numbered over 3,000 when the timber extraction operations began, have been “virtually wiped out”, Sekhsaria pointed out in a 2002 article in Frontline magazine. Just around 30 of them survive today on Strait island. The Onge of Little Andaman suffered a fate that is “marginally better”. Although their numbers have remained steady, their society has been torn asunder.

In contrast those who fiercely defended their isolation seem to have done better. The Jarawa of South and Middle Andaman were “better off” because until recently they were “extremely hostile to the outside world and defended their forests and way of life aggressively”.

But with their forests being plundered and in the wake of increased interaction with outsiders, “It is feared that they too will go the way of the Great Andamanese and the Onge,” Sekhsaria observed. The Sentinelese who live in the North Sentinel island, he points out, “remain violently hostile and therefore stand the best chance of surviving as an independent human community for some more time.”

Over 7,000 people were killed in December 2004 when giant tsunami waves swept into the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Not a single Jarawa figured among the casualties. Using tribal traditional knowledge, they read nature’s warning signs and quickly made their way to higher ground and survived the killer waves.

Ancient wisdom helped them survive the tsunami. They will need to summon some canniness to survive exploitation and assimilation by outsiders.

Sudha Ramachandran is an independent journalist/researcher based in Bangalore. She can be reached at sudha98@hotmail.com

http://atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/NA25Df02.html

China, India enter heating-up Arctic race

By Raja Murthy
Asia Times
Jan 25, 2012

MUMBAI – The frozen world of the Arctic is warming up as a new frontier of the great power game for energy resources, with India, China and Japan seeking stakes in the ecologically and economically sensitive region.

The Asian powers have asked to be “permanent observers” in the Arctic Council of eight countries that have Arctic territory. But existing official members and direct Arctic stakeholders [1], including the United States and Russia, are not exactly jumping with joy about the idea.

The indigenous Arctic people though, like the Inuit, have said they have no objection to the Arctic Council being made more inclusive to the rest of the world, as long as the voice of the original inhabitants is not ignored. Recent scientific studies have established Asian ancestry of many of the Arctic tribes.

Canada, which will be the next Arctic Council chairman in 2013, heads the debate about admitting emerging powers like India, China and Brazil join the North Pole party. The issue was top of agenda at the two-day meeting of the Council on January 17 and 18. Over 15 nations participated in this second annual Munk-Gordon Arctic Security Conference at Toronto, Canada, to decide the future of the Arctic.

The debate, becoming more inevitable and louder, is whether to continue reserving the Arctic region for countries with Arctic territory, or to share its vast resources with the rest of the world.

The Arctic – the region that is the land of the midnight sun, home to the polar bear, headquarters of Santa Claus, and stage to the greatest light show on Earth – the spectacular Northern Lights or Aurora Borealis [2] – spreads across 21 million square kilometers (8.1 million square miles) of land and 13 million square kilometers of icy seas.

This northernmost part of Earth looms in 21st century importance as a vast buried treasure of oil, gas, coal and minerals such as zinc and silver, as a key region for studying global warming, and as significant gateway for maritime trade between Asia, Europe and North America. Arctic sea lanes reduce distances by thousands of kilometers.

In particular, two crucial routes could dramatically increase Arctic shipping from the current annual average of about 15,000 vessels:

Canada’s Northwest Passage, north of Alaska, linking Japan to eastern Canada.

Russia’s Northeast Passage, between Greenland and Russia, connecting China to Europe. Called the Russian Northern Sea Route, this oceanic shortcut lopes off thousands of kilometers between Europe and Asia, compared to sailing through the Panama Canal.

In August 2011, the Russian super tanker Vladimir Tikhonov, carrying a cargo of natural gas condensate from Murmansk to Thailand, became the largest vessel to complete the Northern Sea Route – which was both good and bad news. The Arctic ice melting to this extent to allow shipping meant a significantly shorter sea route, but it also meant an increase in global warming – and predicted disasters like excessive melting of polar ice causing global sea levels to rise and flood coastal cities worldwide.

If predictions of the Arctic being ice free in summer by year 2030 are accurate, the Northern Hemisphere sea lanes could gain in importance to match the Panama and Suez Canals. China is increasingly interested in the Arctic routes as they cut short hauling its exports to Europe by nearly half the distance, from 15,000 miles to about 8,000 miles.

Ironically, Russia – despite being part of the BRICS club of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – is among the loudest protesters against expanding the Arctic Council to include fellow BRICS members.

Both India and China already have an Arctic presence, with research stations in Norway’s northern Svalbard Archipelago. India’s Arctic observatory – called the “Himadri” – in Sanskrit language, meaning snow-capped mountains of the Himalayas – is a three-year-old study station in New Aalesund, Spitsbergen. It is the largest research station in Norway’s Svalbard archipelago or group of islands, which is located about 1,200 km from the North Pole.

Also in Spitsbergen, Svalbard, is the Chinese Arctic Yellow River Station that the Beijing-based Arctic and Antarctic Administration established in July 2004. The two-story building includes labs, office, lobby, storage facilities and a dormitory for about 25 scientists.

Besides the Indian and Chinese research stations, Svalbard also hosts Japanese, Norwegian, Dutch, German, British, French and Italian Arctic study stations [3].

The latest Indian expedition to the Arctic, from May 14 to June 8, 2011, had a five-member team from the National Institute of Oceanography and the National Center for Antarctic and Ocean Research (NCAOR) collecting data for climate change from the Kongsforden Fjord.

“The effects of climatic change are more prominently seen at Arctic,” explained expedition chief scientist Dr Prasanna Kumar, “and therefore such studies are not only important to India but to the whole community on this planet”.

The Indian expedition was part of global efforts to study the vicious circle of the decreasing glacier cover in the Arctic. The reduced ice reduces the Arctic capacity to absorb increasing carbon levels in the atmosphere, thereby adding to global warming; and the global warming in turn more quickly reduces the Arctic ice.

Environmental groups like Greenpeace and Arctic countries are concerned about pollution increasing from more sea traffic, particularly ships spewing out black carbon. Commercial activity will only grow with many other non-Arctic nations, including South Korea and the European Union, officially lining up for a share of the region’s resources.

India is already an observer in the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) based in Potsdam, Germany, which in turn holds observer status in the Arctic Council. Now India has applied to the IASC in its next meeting from 19 to 22 April in Montreal, Canada, to join China and Japan as full members [4].

While India’s Arctic interests are currently more of a scientific nature, China’s military has already expressed a strategic interest. “The Arctic belongs to all the people around the world as no nation has sovereignty over it,” said then former Rear Admiral Yin Zhuo in 2010. Zhuo said China, being home to one-fifth of the world’s population, was entitled to Arctic resources.

China is not wasting any time establishing its polar stakes. By 2015, China plans to launch three Arctic expeditions and five Antarctic research expeditions. China has also commissioned a new polar ice-breaker ship, its second after the Xuelong, or snow dragon.

Powerful ice-breaking ships are a key investment for countries having major interests in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans, as a necessity for all-year access through the ice. India is planning to build an icebreaker, reported Dinesh Sharma in the India Today news fortnightly.

The US has only working ice breaker the USCGC Healy, and the US Navy is pushing hard for upgrading its fleet in the Arctic. Testifying before the US Congress last December on protecting American interests in the Arctic, Rear Admiral Jeffrey M Garrett, US Coast Guard, said. “The Icebreaker fleet represents the main surface presence that the US can exert in what is essentially a maritime domain in the Arctic Ocean.” Russia has a fleet of over 25 ice-breakers, including six nuclear-powered ones.

The choice before the US, Russia and other Arctic nations is whether inclusion of China, India and other countries in the literally global-warming Arctic race would mean: a) many hands making light work to unearth Arctic resources for benefit of all beings, or b) whether it would have too many cooks spoiling the Arctic broth.

Notes

1. Full members of the Arctic Council are Canada, Russia, USA, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Iceland and Denmark (Greenland) – the eight countries with Arctic territory. Six northern indigenous groups of people living in the Arctic – the Inuit Circumpolar Council, Arctic Athabaska Council, Gwich’in Council International, Sami Council, Russian Association of the Indigenous Peoples of the North and Aleut International Association, are influential permanent participants. Six non-Arctic nations are observers: the UK, France, Germany, Spain, Poland and the Netherlands.

2. Compilation of the amazing Aurora Borealis or the Northern Lights in YouTube and National Geographic YouTube time lapse video of the Aureo Borealis across one single night in Norway.

3. Indian, Chinese and other international Arctic research labs, report by the National Centre for Antarctic & Ocean Research, Goa, western India.

4. International Arctic Science Committee Council members: Canada, China, Denmark/Greenland, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Russia, Republic of Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, USA.

http://atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/NA25Df01.html